Newsletter — week of August 24, 2026

Market performance

The Wall Street bell has just rung, and the S&P 500 ends the week up 1.70%. Between Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, Nvidia’s blockbuster results, and oil still hanging on geopolitical tensions, catalysts were in no short supply. Let’s break down together the highlights that set the pace this week.

Below, the S&P 500 in 2026

Market news

The Jackson Hole meeting takes center stage

The Jackson Hole meeting, held from August 27 to 29, delivered its share of suspense with Kevin Warsh’s very first appearance as Fed chair, having succeeded Jerome Powell this past May. Officially devoted to financial innovation and payments, the event was watched mainly for a single question: is the rate-hiking cycle paused, or definitively over?

On Friday, Warsh delivered a sharper message than expected: « inflation remains too high, » and the Fed may have to raise its rates in the coming months. However, going by the FedWatch tool after his Friday remarks, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting rose from about 35.5% the day before the speech to 57.5%.

The U.S. jobs report and the CPI in early September will be worth watching.

Nvidia confirms the AI trajectory

This week Nvidia once again shattered expectations. The AI-chip giant reported fiscal second-quarter revenue up 106% year-over-year. It’s the 14th straight quarter the company has beaten its targets.

Jensen Huang spoke of a genuine « inflection point » for AI, with a customer base now broadening to a multitude of labs and startups. Management anticipates 70% growth for next year—and notes that its growth is constrained by its ability to produce, not by demand.

Nvidia’s CFO announced that the hyperscalers’ capex would rise from $800 billion to $1.3 trillion by 2027. That’s a strong signal that cash will keep pouring into AI-infrastructure suppliers—a very good sign for the AI trade and for the sector companies we hold in the portfolio.

Oil under geopolitical strain

In Europe, Brent (the benchmark oil price in Europe) is trading around $90, and its price remains well supported by global geopolitical tensions as well as the tensions between Ukraine and Russia, with Vladimir Putin having referred to the failure of negotiations and a possible intensification of the conflict. Were he to attack the Baltic States—and therefore, indirectly, the North Seas—Brent could soar. It will thus be worth watching in the coming weeks.

In the Middle East, a sweeping U.S. sanctions plan against Iran was described by Bessent (the U.S. Treasury Secretary) as « the largest financial offensive ever waged against an adversary. » Progress between Iran and Oman on a maritime corridor through the Strait of Hormuz did help ease part of the risk premium perceived by markets, but the real indicator to watch lies elsewhere: marine insurance premiums for transit through the strait remain high, well above their pre-crisis level.

Insurers don’t bargain with hope—they price real risk!

Insurance premiums are an excellent indicator for gauging the intensity of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. They now stand at 30 or even 40 times their pre-crisis level. In concrete terms, a $100 million tanker that paid about $250,000 per voyage before the hostilities must now spend between $7.5 and $10 million for the same trip. That’s the figure to watch.

The past few months have shown us that it’s wiser to trust the price of risk than diplomatic announcement effects: between ceasefires announced and then broken within hours, and negotiation frameworks that never came to anything, the region has piled up false lulls. As long as premiums don’t genuinely ease, the rest is just noise—the strait remains effectively closed and the U.S. strategic petroleum reserves keep falling, as you can see below:

As a result, we believe a high share of our portfolio should stay in energy, and oil in particular. You can discover our stock selection in your member area.

Trump and Venezuela: the « biggest oil deal in history »

A dramatic turn on Friday evening: Trump announced a deal giving the United States majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves in Venezuela, through a new company 55%-owned by U.S. interests over 100-year development rights. The deal effectively places the United States among the top 5 countries controlling the largest oil reserves in the world.

The timing is no coincidence: the war in Iran is reaching its sixth month with no way out, U.S. strategic reserves fell below 300 million barrels in early August, and political pressure over prices at the pump remains strong. On top of that, the announcement lands conveniently ahead of the November midterms—it’s hard not to read it as a message aimed as much at the markets as at the electorate.

But the real stakes go far beyond the question of extra barrels: Venezuela exported most of its crude to China in recent years. By taking majority control of production, Washington doesn’t merely secure a supply source—it potentially cuts off Beijing’s access to one of its strategic suppliers. It’s a geopolitical move as much as an energy one.

This deal is a long-term game changer for the United States; we are witnessing the creation of the « Fortress America » that Trump wants. However, building the infrastructure needed to exploit the oil takes years. This deal will not solve, in the short term, the problem of oil inventories, which will be empty well before the wells in Venezuela are actually in production.

Gold gives ground on rate-hike fears

As noted in the second section, the ambiguity Warsh maintained at Jackson Hole reinforced expectations of a September hike, which weighed on the price of gold.

Indeed, gold is inversely correlated with the dollar, the world’s reserve currency. So expectations of rate hikes pushed the dollar up, since it becomes more remunerative than other currencies. With the dollar rising, gold logically fell.

Below, the price of gold in 2026